Blue is the prediction: each past candle drawn from the real close before it, then the next 15, redrawn every minute (hollow up, filled down). Pale is the fixed history: that chain as it stood at the start of each quarter hour, never redrawn. In the colour rows a bigger dot is a colour call the model stands behind (confident, strong); a small one is close to a coin flip. Tap a bar at the bottom for that minute's numbers.
Win rates
Every kind of prediction, judged once its outcome is known and archived day by day. Chance is what a coin or a blind caller would score. The rule for every agent: this number has to go up.
| prediction | today | last day | 7 days | 30 days | chance | trend |
|---|
By market regime, last 30 days
| regime | match | colour right | confident calls | turn is in |
|---|
Calm, normal and wild are thirds of the minutes by how volatile the model expected them to be; sessions are UTC hours. A layer that only works in one regime shows here first.
Goal: match the real candle
Match 100 = identical candle. Half of it is body overlap (zero when the colour is wrong), half is high–low range overlap.
| window | model | typical | repeat | colour right |
|---|
Each candle of the chain, last 24h
| candle | match | colour right | 90% range held | fixed history |
|---|